3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
917 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 95 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$988/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$288
Tax + insurance
−$115
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$207
Net cashflow
$377/mo
Annual
$4,518/yr
Cap rate
14.51%
Cash-on-cash
29.34%
DSCR
2.31
1% rule
1.80%
Cash to close
$15,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($988 rent vs $55k).
It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $142 of equity ($380 loan paydown + $-238 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#444 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
Santa Anna ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #582 of 1,141 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Coleman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Coleman County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $28k; list at $55k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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