Magnolia II Plan

Waxahachie, TX 75165

$479,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,430 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 873 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,916/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,818
• Tax + insurance: −$896
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-1,410/mo
• Annual: $-16,921/yr
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.25%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $150,465

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $480k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (39.3% below list).
• It's been on market 873 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $292k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in TX, #2,592 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F.
• Waxahachie ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #253 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Felty El (math 60% / reading 50%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 570 students, 34% FRL); Howard J H (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 758 students, 49% FRL); Waxahachie H S (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,963 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1068 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 873 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.