Magnolia II Plan · Waxahachie, TX 75165

$479,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,430 sqft · SingleFamily · 919 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Magnolia II floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining, large family room, study, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a bedroom suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room and media room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 919 days

🏗️ New construction. The $479,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $536,768.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $480k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $304k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in TX, #2,592 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F.
• Waxahachie ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #253 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Felty El (math 60% / reading 50%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 570 students, 34% FRL); Howard J H (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 758 students, 49% FRL); Waxahachie H S (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,963 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1300 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 115d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 919 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $303,921 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 919 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.45%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $536,768
• List price: $479,990
• Delta: -10.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Memory Ln	0.18mi	4/3.5	3,485 (+2%)	0mo	$519,990	$149	85
182 Memory Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	3,280 (-4%)	1mo	$491,236	$150	81
628 Sirius Dr	0.20mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,479 (+1%)	6mo	$534,651	$154	73
621 Sagebrush Ln	0.24mi	4/3.0	3,285 (-4%)	9mo	$525,292	$160	72
214 Memory Ln	0.19mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,558 (+4%)	2mo	$574,236	$161	72
119 Tetrad Cir	0.42mi	4/4.0	3,479 (+1%)	2mo	$570,415	$164	70
1132 Apple Grove Ln	0.36mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,269 (-5%)	1mo	$489,999	$150	66
219 Memory Ln	0.23mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,696 (+8%)	3mo	$541,196	$146	63
523 Stillwater Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	3,245 (-5%)	6mo	$499,900	$154	62
178 Honey Ln	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,980 (-13%)	2mo	$549,540	$184	56
309 Western Sky Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0	3,046 (-11%)	9mo	$415,000	$136	44
462 Wintergreen Dr	0.69mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,209 (-6%)	2mo	$545,000	$170	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-169,045
• Equity at exit: $80,034

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.66×
• Total profit: $-249,248
• Equity at exit: $46,410

Cash invested: $150,295 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 54 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.1 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $524,348 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 370 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75165

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1300
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,815
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$671 /mo · $8,052/yr
• Insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $-1,309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,696

Max offer price $347,425

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-938	-5% $-1,123	+0% $-1,309	+5% $-1,494	+10% $-1,679
Rent	-10% $-1,549	-5% $-1,429	+0% $-1,309	+5% $-1,188	+10% $-1,068
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,038	-0.5pp $-1,172	base $-1,309	+0.5pp $-1,448	+1.0pp $-1,589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,192
• Closing costs: $16,103
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
531 Harvest Grove Dr Waxahachie, TX	4.0	3.0	2355	$3,000	$1.27	139d	1	0.46mi
1107 Wheatland Ter Waxahachie, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$3,000	$1.15	139d	1	0.66mi
247 Half Moon Dr Waxahachie, TX	3.0	2.0	2457	$3,500	$1.42	33d	1	0.88mi
218 Mockingbird Dr Waxahachie, TX	3.0	2.5	2417	$2,750	$1.14	139d	1	0.89mi
213 Nocona Dr Waxahachie, TX	5.0	2.0	2516	$9,750	$3.88	139d	1	0.95mi
211 Sendero Dr Waxahachie, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$2,540	$1.10	74d	1	1.01mi
204 Bay St Waxahachie, TX	4.0	3.0	2724	$2,600	$0.95	7d	1	1.44mi
508 Bush Ave Waxahachie, TX	5.0	3.5	3269	$3,750	$1.15	115d	1	1.46mi
1767 Shumard St Waxahachie, TX	5.0	4.0	4498	$4,900	$1.09	20d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $479,990 Active 919 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $479,990 Active 918 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $479,990 Active 917 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $479,990 Active 916 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $479,990 Active 915 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $479,990 Active 914 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $479,990 Active 913 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $479,990 Active 912 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $479,990 Active 911 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $479,990 Active 910 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $479,990 Active 909 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $479,990 Active 908 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $479,990 Active 907 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $479,990 Active 901 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $479,990 Active 900 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $479,990 Active 899 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $479,990 Active 896 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $479,990 Active 895 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $479,990 Active 894 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $479,990 Active 893 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $479,990 Active 892 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $479,990 Active 890 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $479,990 Active 889 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $479,990 Active 888 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $479,990 Active 887 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $479,990 Active 886 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $479,990 Active 885 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $479,990 Active 884 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $479,990 Active 883 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $479,990 Active 882 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $479,990 Active 881 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $479,990 Active 880 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $479,990 Active 879 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $479,990 Active 878 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $479,990 Active 877 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $479,990 Active 876 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $479,990 Active 875 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $479,990 Active 874 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $479,990 Active 873 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $479,990 Active 871 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $479,990 Active 870 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $479,990 Active 869 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $479,990 Active 868 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $489,990 Active 865 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $489,990 Active 864 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $489,990 Active 863 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $489,990 Active 862 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $489,990 Active 860 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $489,990 Active 858 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $489,990 Active 857 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,067
• − Property taxes: −$8,052
• − Insurance: −$2,684
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,918
• − Management: −$2,918
• − Depreciation: −$15,615
• Taxable loss: −$25,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,188
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Magnolia II plan is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes bathrooms and improves resale value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Felty El C TX #602/4,322 Nat'l #9,637/41,679 Middle Howard J H D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Waxahachie H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waxahachie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844730
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,434
• Composite: 39.14/100
• National rank: #4034
• State rank: #253 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Waxahachie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #2592

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ellis County · 194,556 people
• City population: 67,417
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,513
• Household income: $86,391
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.58%
• Current HPI: 255.0247
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $521,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-11 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-08 Listed $504,990 Zillow