67 Liberty Corners Rd

Vernon Valley, NJ 10969

$785,000D-

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,004 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,191/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,117
• Tax + insurance: −$1,649
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-4,034/mo
• Annual: $-48,411/yr
• Cap rate: 0.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.02%
• DSCR: 0.02
• 1% rule: 0.28%
• Cash to close: $219,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $785k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-48k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (68.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (72.1% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($738k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (72.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $84k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $78k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#456 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Warwick Valley Central School District (town): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #118 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sanfordville Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 794 students, 16% FRL); Warwick Valley Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 1,082 students, 0% FRL); Warwick Valley High School (math 95% / reading 98%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,366 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$135k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.1% vs local median 1.3% in Vernon Valley — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.