67 Liberty Corners Rd · Vernon Valley, NJ 10969

$785,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2002 4.50 ac lot $261/sqft · 20% above area Est $936k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on 4.5 picturesque acres, this beautifully maintained colonial home offers space, privacy, and a thoughtfully designed layout in a peaceful setting. A welcoming two-story foyer leads into an expansive great room with soaring ceilings, oversized windows, and a fireplace, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The open-concept eat-in kitchen features a center island, ample cabinetry, seamless flow to the great room/family area, and direct access to the rear deck, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A main-level study provides flexible space for a home office or quiet retreat. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite offers a private escape with large windows, a well-appointed bath and impressive walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms are generously sized and filled with natural light. The finished walk-out lower level adds valuable living space, ideal for recreation, media, or guests, along with a full bathroom for added convenience. Surrounded by open land and Appalachian Mountain views, the property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy both comfort and privacy while remaining within reach of local amenities, shopping, and commuter routes.

Key facts

• 4.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $785k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-48k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (68.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (72.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (72.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.1% vs local median 1.3% in Vernon Valley — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#456 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Warwick Valley Central School District (town): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #118 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $84k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $78k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$135k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($738k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,106 (72.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.28% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.02%
• DSCR: 0.02
• GRM: 29.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $935,719
• List price: $785,000
• Delta: -16.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $170,831
• Equity at exit: $707,190

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $705,609
• Equity at exit: $1,525,082

Cash invested: $219,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10969

• Home prices YoY: 18.4%
• Price-to-rent: 29.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,117
• Tax from tax record: −$1,321 /mo · $15,858/yr
• Insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-4,034

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,298

Max offer price $250,469

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,590	-5% $-3,812	+0% $-4,034	+5% $-4,256	+10% $-4,479
Rent	-10% $-4,207	-5% $-4,121	+0% $-4,034	+5% $-3,948	+10% $-3,861
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,639	-0.5pp $-3,835	base $-4,034	+0.5pp $-4,238	+1.0pp $-4,445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $196,250
• Closing costs: $23,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $785,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $785,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $785,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $785,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $785,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $785,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $785,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $785,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $785,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $785,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $785,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $785,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $785,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $785,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $785,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $785,000 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $785,000 Active 53 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $785,000 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Set on 4.5 picturesque acres, this beautifully maintained colonial home offers space, privacy, and a thoughtfully designed layout in a peaceful setting. A welcoming two-story foyer leads into an expansive great room with soaring ceilings, oversized windows, and a fireplace, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The open-concept eat-in kitchen features a center island, ample cabinetry, seamless flow to the great room/family area, and direct access to the rear deck, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A main-level study provides flexible space for a home office or quiet retreat. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite offers a private escape with large windows, a well-appointed bath and impressive walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms are generously sized and filled with natural light. The finished walk-out lower level adds valuable living space, ideal for recreation, media, or guests, along with a full bathroom for added convenience. Surrounded by open land and Appalachian Mountain views, the property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy both comfort and privacy while remaining within reach of local amenities, shopping, and commuter routes.

19. 2026-04-29
    price $825,000 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Set on 4.5 picturesque acres, this beautifully maintained colonial home offers space, privacy, and a thoughtfully designed layout in a peaceful setting. A welcoming two-story foyer leads into an expansive great room with soaring ceilings, oversized windows, and a fireplace, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The open-concept eat-in kitchen features a center island, ample cabinetry, seamless flow to the great room/family area, and direct access to the rear deck, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A main-level study provides flexible space for a home office or quiet retreat. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite offers a private escape with large windows, a well-appointed bath and impressive walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms are generously sized and filled with natural light. The finished walk-out lower level adds valuable living space, ideal for recreation, media, or guests, along with a full bathroom for added convenience. Surrounded by open land and Appalachian Mountain views, the property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy both comfort and privacy while remaining within reach of local amenities, shopping, and commuter routes.

20. 2026-03-16
    listed $850,000 Active 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Set on 4.5 picturesque acres, this beautifully maintained colonial home offers space, privacy, and a thoughtfully designed layout in a peaceful setting. A welcoming two-story foyer leads into an expansive great room with soaring ceilings, oversized windows, and a fireplace, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The open-concept eat-in kitchen features a center island, ample cabinetry, seamless flow to the great room/family area, and direct access to the rear deck, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A main-level study provides flexible space for a home office or quiet retreat. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite offers a private escape with large windows, a well-appointed bath and impressive walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms are generously sized and filled with natural light. The finished walk-out lower level adds valuable living space, ideal for recreation, media, or guests, along with a full bathroom for added convenience. Surrounded by open land and Appalachian Mountain views, the property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy both comfort and privacy while remaining within reach of local amenities, shopping, and commuter routes.

21. 2021-08-03
    soldstatus $700,000
22. 2021-07-16
    soldstatus $700,000 Closed 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    Stunning 5 bed, 3 1/2 bath colonial in the Pine Island hamlet of beautiful Warwick, NY. No expense has been spared when it comes to the quality of finishes both inside & out. Updated eat-in kitchen boasts marble countertops, newer stainless steel appliances, & pantry with custom built-ins. Kitchen is open to the bright family room and leads to the deck via sliders. Dining room & living room are adjacent to one another creating a perfect flow for hosting holidays & large gatherings. Den/office/5th bedroom located on the main level, along with half bath and powder room. The 2nd floor offers a one-of-kind master suite w/a walk-in closet that is sure to please any fashion enthusiast. Recently updated en-suite w/marble vanity countertops & beautiful ceramic tile. 3 large bedrooms & a full bath complete the 2nd floor. Sq ft includes a beautifully finished walkout basement w second family room, bar area, ample storage, a full bath, pristine carpet & marble tile. Schedule your showing today! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

23. 2021-04-22
    status Pending 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    Stunning 5 bed, 3 1/2 bath colonial in the Pine Island hamlet of beautiful Warwick, NY. No expense has been spared when it comes to the quality of finishes both inside & out. Updated eat-in kitchen boasts marble countertops, newer stainless steel appliances, & pantry with custom built-ins. Kitchen is open to the bright family room and leads to the deck via sliders. Dining room & living room are adjacent to one another creating a perfect flow for hosting holidays & large gatherings. Den/office/5th bedroom located on the main level, along with half bath and powder room. The 2nd floor offers a one-of-kind master suite w/a walk-in closet that is sure to please any fashion enthusiast. Recently updated en-suite w/marble vanity countertops & beautiful ceramic tile. 3 large bedrooms & a full bath complete the 2nd floor. Sq ft includes a beautifully finished walkout basement w second family room, bar area, ample storage, a full bath, pristine carpet & marble tile. Schedule your showing today! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

24. 2021-04-17
    historical 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    Stunning 5 bed, 3 1/2 bath colonial in the Pine Island hamlet of beautiful Warwick, NY. No expense has been spared when it comes to the quality of finishes both inside & out. Updated eat-in kitchen boasts marble countertops, newer stainless steel appliances, & pantry with custom built-ins. Kitchen is open to the bright family room and leads to the deck via sliders. Dining room & living room are adjacent to one another creating a perfect flow for hosting holidays & large gatherings. Den/office/5th bedroom located on the main level, along with half bath and powder room. The 2nd floor offers a one-of-kind master suite w/a walk-in closet that is sure to please any fashion enthusiast. Recently updated en-suite w/marble vanity countertops & beautiful ceramic tile. 3 large bedrooms & a full bath complete the 2nd floor. Sq ft includes a beautifully finished walkout basement w second family room, bar area, ample storage, a full bath, pristine carpet & marble tile. Schedule your showing today! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

25. 2021-04-01
    listed $699,000 Active 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    Stunning 5 bed, 3 1/2 bath colonial in the Pine Island hamlet of beautiful Warwick, NY. No expense has been spared when it comes to the quality of finishes both inside & out. Updated eat-in kitchen boasts marble countertops, newer stainless steel appliances, & pantry with custom built-ins. Kitchen is open to the bright family room and leads to the deck via sliders. Dining room & living room are adjacent to one another creating a perfect flow for hosting holidays & large gatherings. Den/office/5th bedroom located on the main level, along with half bath and powder room. The 2nd floor offers a one-of-kind master suite w/a walk-in closet that is sure to please any fashion enthusiast. Recently updated en-suite w/marble vanity countertops & beautiful ceramic tile. 3 large bedrooms & a full bath complete the 2nd floor. Sq ft includes a beautifully finished walkout basement w second family room, bar area, ample storage, a full bath, pristine carpet & marble tile. Schedule your showing today! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

26. 2003-04-02
    soldstatus $455,500
27. 2003-03-31
    soldstatus $455,000
28. 2003-03-05
    price $459,500
29. 2003-03-05
    historical
30. 2002-08-10
    listed $455,000
31. 2002-06-28
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,858 · $1,321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,702 · $1,475/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,844/yr (+$154/mo · 11.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,972
• − Property taxes: −$15,858
• − Insurance: −$3,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$22,836
• Taxable loss: −$64,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15,481
• After-tax cash flow: $-32,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warwick Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629970
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,288
• Composite: 62.39/100
• National rank: #692
• State rank: #118 of 590 in NY

Livability — Vernon Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #17299

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,523
• Population (ZIP): 1,333

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 9% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.27%
• Current HPI: 311.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+881.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $785,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $825,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $700,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-16 Sold (MLS) $700,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-01 Listed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $455,500 Public Records
• 2003-03-31 Sold (MLS) $455,000 HGMLS
• 2003-03-05 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2003-03-05 Price Changed $459,500 HGMLS
• 2002-08-10 Listed $455,000 HGMLS
• 2002-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,858 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.