1155 Holbech Ln

Channelview, TX 77530

$207,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,326 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,832/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax + insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$23
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-46/mo
• Annual: $-557/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $57,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $207k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-557/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#598 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Channelview ISD (suburban): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #640 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: B H Hamblen El (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 954 students, 83% FRL); Aguirre J H (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 975 students, 76% FRL); Channelview H S (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,893 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.9%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 184% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $207k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Channelview — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.