3323 Canberra Pl

Ellenton, FL 34221

$372,758F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,989 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 255 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,675/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,955
• Tax + insurance: −$374
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-228/mo
• Annual: $-2,734/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $104,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $373k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (28.2% below list).
• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1176 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.