315 N Payne St

New Ulm, MN 56073

$169,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$261
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $270/mo
• Annual: $3,241/yr
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#39 in MN, #1,102 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Ulm Public School District (town): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary (math 47% / reading 39%, grade F, #574 of 857 statewide, top 67%, 619 students, 40% FRL); Washington Learning Center (188 students, 47% FRL); New Ulm High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B, #19 of 471 statewide, top 4%, 706 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 21% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 41 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brown County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $170k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.2% in New Ulm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.