315 N Payne St · New Ulm, MN 56073

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1890 9,583 sqft lot $123/sqft · 10% below area Est $188k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1890 mansard-style home—one of the few in New Ulm! The main floor offers a living room with a gas Franklin stove, dining room, kitchen, full bath, and laundry. Upstairs features three bedrooms. Enjoy a fenced yard and a spacious 26x32 garage. A rare find with timeless character!

Key facts

• Gas franklin stove
• Timeless character
• Fenced yard

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• GAS FRANKLIN STOVE
• TIMELESS CHARACTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.2% in New Ulm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#39 in MN, #1,102 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Ulm Public School District (town): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary (math 47% / reading 39%, grade F, #574 of 857 statewide, top 67%, 619 students, 40% FRL); Washington Learning Center (188 students, 47% FRL); New Ulm High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B, #19 of 471 statewide, top 4%, 706 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 21% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 41 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brown County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $170k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,351 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,090
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -9.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
622 N Garden St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,382 (+0%)	11mo	$240,000	$174	78
806 N Payne St	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,382 (+0%)	7mo	$181,000	$131	67
304 N Washington St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,505 (+9%)	6mo	$227,000	$151	65
119 N Jefferson St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,215 (-12%)	3mo	$167,200	$138	65
126 S Franklin St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-4%)	5mo	$180,000	$135	65
919 N Washington St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,354 (-2%)	1mo	$195,000	$144	64
108 Franklin St St S	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-4%)	4mo	$275,000	$208	61
1100 N Garden St	0.63mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,328 (-4%)	0mo	$180,000	$136	57
135 Bianchi Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+8%)	7mo	$250,000	$168	57
1001 N Jefferson St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,324 (-4%)	8mo	$155,000	$117	56
727 N Minnesota St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,320 (-4%)	12mo	$198,000	$150	53
1442 N 7th St	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,208 (-12%)	4mo	$247,000	$204	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,317
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,220
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56073

• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,282/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,458

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $366	-5% $318	+0% $270	+5% $222	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $128	-5% $199	+0% $270	+5% $341	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $313	base $270	+0.5pp $226	+1.0pp $181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Center St New Ulm, MN	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   Charming 1890 mansard-style home—one of the few in New Ulm! The main floor offers a living room with a gas Franklin stove, dining room, kitchen, full bath, and laundry. Upstairs features three bedrooms. Enjoy a fenced yard and a spacious 26x32 garage. A rare find with timeless character!

2. 2026-05-08
   historical Active Under Contract 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   Charming 1890 mansard-style home—one of the few in New Ulm! The main floor offers a living room with a gas Franklin stove, dining room, kitchen, full bath, and laundry. Upstairs features three bedrooms. Enjoy a fenced yard and a spacious 26x32 garage. A rare find with timeless character!

3. 2026-04-20
   listed $169,900 Active 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   Charming 1890 mansard-style home—one of the few in New Ulm! The main floor offers a living room with a gas Franklin stove, dining room, kitchen, full bath, and laundry. Upstairs features three bedrooms. Enjoy a fenced yard and a spacious 26x32 garage. A rare find with timeless character!

4. 2002-01-11
   soldstatus $74,500
5. 2000-08-18
   soldstatus $66,000
6. 1996-09-11
   soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,282
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$133
• After-tax cash flow: $3,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Ulm Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2723490
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $53,171
• Composite: 43.93/100
• National rank: #2906
• State rank: #104 of 301 in MN

Livability — New Ulm

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #1102

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Ulm, MN
• City population: 17,325
• Population (ZIP): 17,325

Population outlook (Brown County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,403 people
• By 2030: 23,790 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 22,309 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 20,948 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 19,038 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 16,658 · -31.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brown

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 31.5% · R 66.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -12.1pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -166.22%
• Current HPI: 192.7295
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+529.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — RASM
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — RASM
• 2026-04-20 Listed $169,900 RASM
• 2002-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2000-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 1996-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,282 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.