822 Buck Run Dr

Patrick Springs, VA 24082

$205,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,356/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-145/mo
• Annual: $-1,737/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (33.9% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#223 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Patrick Springs Primary (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 256 students, 76% FRL); Hardin Reynolds Memorial School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #65 of 342 statewide, top 21%, 217 students, 82% FRL); Patrick County High (math 66% / reading 76%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 851 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 45% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $205k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Patrick Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.