822 Buck Run Dr · Patrick Springs, VA 24082

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 1998 5.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW a fully updated 4 bed 2 full bath home with over 5 acres of beautiful country land for this price!! Land is a nice blend of wooded and cleared ! When you're not enjoying the outside the interior offers numerous modern upgrades such as paint, flooring, appliances, lighting and so much more. Enjoy the open concept of living room, kitchen and formal with fireplace, then retreat to the large primary suite with walk in closet and full bath wit h garden tub and dual sinks! Patrick Spring Elementary , Harden Reynolds middle , Patrick County HS

Key facts

• Modern upgrades
• Open concept
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• MODERN UPGRADES
• OPEN CONCEPT
• FIREPLACE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• GARDEN TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Patrick Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#223 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Patrick Springs Primary (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 256 students, 76% FRL); Hardin Reynolds Memorial School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #65 of 342 statewide, top 21%, 217 students, 82% FRL); Patrick County High (math 66% / reading 76%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 851 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 45% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $205k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,551 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $15,371
• Equity at exit: $92,177

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $67,533
• Equity at exit: $142,056

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24082

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $662/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,539

Max offer price $179,424

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-87	+0% $-145	+5% $-203	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-252	-5% $-198	+0% $-145	+5% $-91	+10% $-38
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-93	base $-145	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on marketlisting id $205,000 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-03-28
   status Pending 546-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   WOW a fully updated 4 bed 2 full bath home with over 5 acres of beautiful country land for this price!! Land is a nice blend of wooded and cleared ! When you're not enjoying the outside the interior offers numerous modern upgrades such as paint, flooring, appliances, lighting and so much more. Enjoy the open concept of living room, kitchen and formal with fireplace, then retreat to the large primary suite with walk in closet and full bath wit h garden tub and dual sinks! Patrick Spring Elementary , Harden Reynolds middle , Patrick County HS

3. 2026-03-28
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   WOW a fully updated 4 bed 2 full bath home with over 5 acres of beautiful country land for this price!! Land is a nice blend of wooded and cleared ! When you're not enjoying the outside the interior offers numerous modern upgrades such as paint, flooring, appliances, lighting and so much more. Enjoy the open concept of living room, kitchen and formal with fireplace, then retreat to the large primary suite with walk in closet and full bath wit h garden tub and dual sinks! Patrick Spring Elementary , Harden Reynolds middle , Patrick County HS

4. 2026-02-27
   listed $205,000 Active 546-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   WOW a fully updated 4 bed 2 full bath home with over 5 acres of beautiful country land for this price!! Land is a nice blend of wooded and cleared ! When you're not enjoying the outside the interior offers numerous modern upgrades such as paint, flooring, appliances, lighting and so much more. Enjoy the open concept of living room, kitchen and formal with fireplace, then retreat to the large primary suite with walk in closet and full bath wit h garden tub and dual sinks! Patrick Spring Elementary , Harden Reynolds middle , Patrick County HS

5. 2026-02-25
   status Active
6. 2026-01-18
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-27
   price $205,000
8. 2025-12-14
   price $210,000
9. 2025-12-02
   status Active
10. 2025-11-22
    status Pending
11. 2025-10-27
    listed $215,000 Active
12. 2020-05-11
    soldstatus $95,000 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    If you are looking for peace and quiet with hunting out your back door, take a look at this large doublewide on a permanent foundation that has had recent updates: new metal roof (2018), back deck, laminated wood-look flooring and well pump (2016). The home has cathedral ceilings with a huge living room and great master bedroom and bath with shower and large garden tub and large walk-in closet. A large kitchen/breakfast nook are adjacent to the den with gas wall heater. Three additional good-sized bedrooms and large hall bath compliment the living space with a laundry room at the end of the home. The home has double hung insulated windows and is at the end of a gravel road. The home is handicap-accessible with wider doors and ramp and bath grab bars.

13. 2020-05-11
    soldstatus $95,000

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    If you are looking for peace and quiet with hunting out your back door, take a look at this large doublewide on a permanent foundation that has had recent updates: new metal roof (2018), back deck, laminated wood-look flooring and well pump (2016). The home has cathedral ceilings with a huge living room and great master bedroom and bath with shower and large garden tub and large walk-in closet. A large kitchen/breakfast nook are adjacent to the den with gas wall heater. Three additional good-sized bedrooms and large hall bath compliment the living space with a laundry room at the end of the home. The home has double hung insulated windows and is at the end of a gravel road. The home is handicap-accessible with wider doors and ramp and bath grab bars.

14. 2019-08-19
    listed $94,900 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    If you are looking for peace and quiet with hunting out your back door, take a look at this large doublewide on a permanent foundation that has had recent updates: new metal roof (2018), back deck, laminated wood-look flooring and well pump (2016). The home has cathedral ceilings with a huge living room and great master bedroom and bath with shower and large garden tub and large walk-in closet. A large kitchen/breakfast nook are adjacent to the den with gas wall heater. Three additional good-sized bedrooms and large hall bath compliment the living space with a laundry room at the end of the home. The home has double hung insulated windows and is at the end of a gravel road. The home is handicap-accessible with wider doors and ramp and bath grab bars.

15. 2019-01-24
    listed $109,000
16. 2019-01-24
    listed $109,000
17. 2014-10-30
    soldstatus $30,000
18. 2014-08-03
    listed $33,900
19. 2007-09-28
    soldstatus $40,000
20. 2006-11-01
    listed $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $662 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,681 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,019/yr (+$85/mo · 153.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$662
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,313
• After-tax cash flow: $-424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patrick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102880
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,331
• Composite: 60.52/100
• National rank: #842
• State rank: #18 of 131 in VA

Livability — Patrick Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #223
• US rank: #7412

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 362

Population outlook (Patrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,918 people
• By 2030: 16,097 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,317 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 12,476 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 9,051 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 6,138 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 30%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Romanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Patrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -30.6pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+30.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+197.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — MHPCAR
• 2026-03-28 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-02-27 Listed $205,000 MHPCAR
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2026-01-18 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $205,000 MLSRV
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $210,000 MLSRV
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2025-11-22 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-10-27 Listed $215,000 MLSRV
• 2020-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-11 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MHPCAR
• 2019-08-19 Listed $94,900 MHPCAR
• 2019-01-24 Listed $109,000 MHPCAR
• 2019-01-24 Listed $109,000 SWVAR
• 2014-10-30 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MHPCAR
• 2014-08-03 Listed $33,900 MHPCAR
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MHPCAR
• 2006-11-01 Listed $69,000 MHPCAR

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $662 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.