4949 E 10 Mile Rd

Warren, MI 48091

$64,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 973 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$290
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $204/mo
• Annual: $2,448/yr
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.86%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.97%
• Cash to close: $18,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Center Line Public Schools (suburban): math 14% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #459 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 33 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.3% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?