5186 Upper Elm St

South Fulton, GA 30349

$375,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,600 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$590
• HOA: −$141
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-662/mo
• Annual: $-7,949/yr
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.57%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-662 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (31.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 656 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $375k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,576/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 4258% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.