2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 1964
· Condo
· Active
· 80 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,946/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,384
Tax + insurance
−$440
HOA
−$826
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$619
Net cashflow
$-323/mo
Annual
$-3,882/yr
Cap rate
4.82%
Cash-on-cash
-5.25%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$73,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $264k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (17.7% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $264k).
It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $217k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#200 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, cost of living F.
Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $175k; list at $264k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.4% in Laguna Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,946/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1572% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PNWSWQ50BRGQC8
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29