1154 Welch St SW

Atlanta, GA 30310

$149,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,803/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$351
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $287/mo
• Annual: $3,450/yr
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#6 in GA, #919 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Atlanta Public Schools (urban): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #80 of 174 in GA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kipp Ways Primary Charter School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,160 of 1,228 statewide, top 98%, 477 students, 100% FRL, charter); Sylvan Hills Middle School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #439 of 470 statewide, top 94%, 445 students, 100% FRL); Carver High School Early College (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #269 of 424 statewide, top 65%, 575 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 71% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Atlanta Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $150k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.1% in Atlanta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.