361 Cumberland Cir

Callender Lake, TX 75778

$49,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,326/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$55
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $581/mo
• Annual: $6,973/yr
• Cap rate: 20.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.91%
• DSCR: 3.22
• 1% rule: 2.66%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,447 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Van ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (55%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $50k implies a 957% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.2% in Callender Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.