361 Cumberland Cir · Callender Lake, TX 75778

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1995 0.39 ac lot $41/sqft · 80% below area $55/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers a solid opportunity for a new homeowner or investor looking to add value with a little vision. Featuring a functional layout and good bones, it’s ready for its next chapter while allowing room for updates and personal touches. The home does need some TLC, but with the right improvements it can truly shine, whether as a primary residence, rental, or flip. Comes with 3 lots that all have well, septic and electric. If you’re looking for a property with potential in a quiet setting, this one is well worth a look.

Key facts

• 3 lots
• Septic
• Electric

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GOOD BONES
• 3 LOTS
• SEPTIC
• ELECTRIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.2% in Callender Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,447 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Van ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (55%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $50k implies a 957% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.91%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,457
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -80.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
782 Dogwood Trl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+4%)	11mo	$260,000	$202	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $47,446
• Equity at exit: $27,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.03×
• Total profit: $112,197
• Equity at exit: $45,684

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75778

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,543/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $590

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $49,900 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This property offers a solid opportunity for a new homeowner or investor looking to add value with a little vision. Featuring a functional layout and good bones, it’s ready for its next chapter while allowing room for updates and personal touches. The home does need some TLC, but with the right improvements it can truly shine, whether as a primary residence, rental, or flip. Comes with 3 lots that all have well, septic and electric. If you’re looking for a property with potential in a quiet setting, this one is well worth a look.

2. 2026-03-24
   price $74,900 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This property offers a solid opportunity for a new homeowner or investor looking to add value with a little vision. Featuring a functional layout and good bones, it’s ready for its next chapter while allowing room for updates and personal touches. The home does need some TLC, but with the right improvements it can truly shine, whether as a primary residence, rental, or flip. Comes with 3 lots that all have well, septic and electric. If you’re looking for a property with potential in a quiet setting, this one is well worth a look.

3. 2026-03-09
   price $79,900 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This property offers a solid opportunity for a new homeowner or investor looking to add value with a little vision. Featuring a functional layout and good bones, it’s ready for its next chapter while allowing room for updates and personal touches. The home does need some TLC, but with the right improvements it can truly shine, whether as a primary residence, rental, or flip. Comes with 3 lots that all have well, septic and electric. If you’re looking for a property with potential in a quiet setting, this one is well worth a look.

4. 2026-03-03
   price $89,900 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This property offers a solid opportunity for a new homeowner or investor looking to add value with a little vision. Featuring a functional layout and good bones, it’s ready for its next chapter while allowing room for updates and personal touches. The home does need some TLC, but with the right improvements it can truly shine, whether as a primary residence, rental, or flip. Comes with 3 lots that all have well, septic and electric. If you’re looking for a property with potential in a quiet setting, this one is well worth a look.

5. 2026-02-18
   price $94,900 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This property offers a solid opportunity for a new homeowner or investor looking to add value with a little vision. Featuring a functional layout and good bones, it’s ready for its next chapter while allowing room for updates and personal touches. The home does need some TLC, but with the right improvements it can truly shine, whether as a primary residence, rental, or flip. Comes with 3 lots that all have well, septic and electric. If you’re looking for a property with potential in a quiet setting, this one is well worth a look.

6. 2026-02-03
   price $99,900 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This property offers a solid opportunity for a new homeowner or investor looking to add value with a little vision. Featuring a functional layout and good bones, it’s ready for its next chapter while allowing room for updates and personal touches. The home does need some TLC, but with the right improvements it can truly shine, whether as a primary residence, rental, or flip. Comes with 3 lots that all have well, septic and electric. If you’re looking for a property with potential in a quiet setting, this one is well worth a look.

7. 2026-01-19
   listed $109,900 Active 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This property offers a solid opportunity for a new homeowner or investor looking to add value with a little vision. Featuring a functional layout and good bones, it’s ready for its next chapter while allowing room for updates and personal touches. The home does need some TLC, but with the right improvements it can truly shine, whether as a primary residence, rental, or flip. Comes with 3 lots that all have well, septic and electric. If you’re looking for a property with potential in a quiet setting, this one is well worth a look.

8. 2025-04-21
   price $130,000
9. 2025-02-21
   listed $150,000 Active
10. 2021-01-01
    historical
11. 2020-08-24
    listed $72,000
12. 2013-10-24
    soldstatus
13. 2013-10-23
    soldstatus
14. 2013-10-23
    soldstatus
15. 2013-09-12
    listed $33,500
16. 2013-03-26
    listed $33,500
17. 2006-07-11
    soldstatus
18. 2003-06-13
    soldstatus
19. 2003-06-13
    soldstatus
20. 2003-06-09
    soldstatus $4,723

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,543
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,273
• − Management: −$1,273
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $6,662
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,599
• After-tax cash flow: $5,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,308
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5120
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Callender Lake

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1447
• US rank: #24766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callender Lake, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,987

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Current HPI: 216.4151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+956.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $74,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $94,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $130,000 PAOR
• 2025-02-21 Listed $150,000 PAOR
• 2021-01-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2020-08-24 Listed $72,000 NTREIS
• 2013-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-10-23 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2013-10-23 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2013-09-12 Listed $33,500 GTAR
• 2013-03-26 Listed $33,500 HCBOR
• 2006-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $4,723 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,543 · +144.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.