38 5th St

Valley Stream, NY 11581

$899,000D

None bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 1898 · MultiFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$1,311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,525
• Net cashflow: $-288/mo
• Annual: $-3,454/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 1×2bd/1ba + 1×3bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-144/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $848k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $726k (19.2% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($886k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $726k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#13 in NY, #301 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Valley Stream Central High School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #78 of 590 in NY (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Brooklyn Avenue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 342 students, 51% FRL); Valley Stream Memorial Junior High School (math 29% / reading 66%, grade C-, #306 of 729 statewide, top 43%, 1,038 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 17% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Valley Stream Central High School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Valley Stream — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,263/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($142k/yr) (locally 346% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.