11845 Oak Ridge Dr

Kingston, OK 73439

$375,000D-

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,972 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,242/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$399
• HOA: −$32
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-627/mo
• Annual: $-7,520/yr
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.16%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-627 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (40.2% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#251 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kingston Es (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #210 of 845 statewide, top 25%, 620 students, 0% FRL); Kingston Ms (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #57 of 345 statewide, top 18%, 286 students, 0% FRL); Kingston Hs (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 362 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 76% district-wide (76 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 436 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.