12301 Kernan Forest Blvd #1808

Jacksonville, FL 32225

$214,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,182/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$320
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-328/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $59,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $214k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-328/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $214k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sabal Palm Elementary School (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 704 students, 37% FRL); Landmark Middle School (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #300 of 571 statewide, top 53%, 1,077 students, 50% FRL); Sandalwood High School (math 53% / reading 46%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,771 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.