12301 Kernan Forest Blvd #1808 · Jacksonville, FL 32225

$214,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Condo public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2005 $320/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning - lovely ground floor unit with 3 bedroom & 2 baths in gated community of Hammock Grove condominium off of Kernan Blvd. The unit offers an open living area; living, dining and kitchen separates the master suite from the other 2 bedrooms. Other features include a screen enclosed patio, in-unit laundry & direct indoor access to the single attached garage. This home is ready for move-in with amenities to include a beautiful community pool, club facilities, play ground, waterpark & basket ball area. Only minutes from JTB, 295, downtown, and the beaches. Conveniently located near three elementary schools, two middle schools, two charter schools, and UNF. This is a must see!! This condo will not disappoint!!

Key facts

• New flooring
• Split floor plan
• Built in pantry

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR CONDO
• GATED HAMMOCK GROVE COMMUNITY
• NEW FLOORING
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• BUILT IN PANTRY
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee: $320 monthly; Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, playground, basketball court

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Has garage; Assigned parking; Additional parking available; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story; Entry level: 1; North-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Screened patio; Community pool (association); Community clubhouse; Community playground; Community basketball court

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on entry level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-328/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $214k).
• Recommended offer: $208k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sabal Palm Elementary School (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 704 students, 37% FRL); Landmark Middle School (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #300 of 571 statewide, top 53%, 1,077 students, 50% FRL); Sandalwood High School (math 53% / reading 46%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,771 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,580 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-42,610
• Equity at exit: $31,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-63,241
• Equity at exit: $18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32225

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,634/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$320
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,216

Max offer price $209,177

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $33	+0% $-27	+5% $-88	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-113	+0% $-27	+5% $59	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $27	base $-27	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12423 Forest Lake Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1597	$2,375	$1.49	5d	1	0.22mi
12423 Forest Lake Cir N #1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,275	$1.42	4d	1	0.22mi
12423 Forest Lake Cir E Unit 1 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,375	$1.49	19d	1	0.22mi
1666 Ponderosa Pine Dr W Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1769	$2,646	$1.50	3d	1	0.45mi
12021 McCormick Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1214	$1,570	$1.29	4d	4	0.86mi
3363 Hampstead Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,350	$1.52	19d	1	1.00mi
3054 Cobblewood Ln W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1480	$1,950	$1.32	23d	1	1.01mi
3333 Monument Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,369	$1.59	3d	18	1.09mi
11671 Tanager Dr Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,900	$1.35	15d	1	1.22mi
11728 Tanager Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1464	$1,895	$1.29	3d	1	1.23mi
11172 Tanager Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,900	$1.35	25d	1	1.30mi
11406 Bedford Oaks Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1122	$1,500	$1.34	6d	1	1.33mi
11548 Willet Ct N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,800	$1.10	18d	1	1.45mi
13101 Premium Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,900	$1.54	25d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $320 · $3,840/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $214,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $214,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $214,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $214,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $214,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $214,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    price $225,000
11. 2026-05-02
    listed $230,000 Active
12. 2026-04-28
    soldstatus $230,000
13. 2021-07-15
    soldstatus $205,000
14. 2021-07-07
    soldstatus $205,000 Sold 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Stunning - lovely ground floor unit with 3 bedroom & 2 baths in gated community of Hammock Grove condominium off of Kernan Blvd. The unit offers an open living area; living, dining and kitchen separates the master suite from the other 2 bedrooms. Other features include a screen enclosed patio, in-unit laundry & direct indoor access to the single attached garage. This home is ready for move-in with amenities to include a beautiful community pool, club facilities, play ground, waterpark & basket ball area. Only minutes from JTB, 295, downtown, and the beaches. Conveniently located near three elementary schools, two middle schools, two charter schools, and UNF. This is a must see!! This condo will not disappoint!!

15. 2021-06-07
    status Pending 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Stunning - lovely ground floor unit with 3 bedroom & 2 baths in gated community of Hammock Grove condominium off of Kernan Blvd. The unit offers an open living area; living, dining and kitchen separates the master suite from the other 2 bedrooms. Other features include a screen enclosed patio, in-unit laundry & direct indoor access to the single attached garage. This home is ready for move-in with amenities to include a beautiful community pool, club facilities, play ground, waterpark & basket ball area. Only minutes from JTB, 295, downtown, and the beaches. Conveniently located near three elementary schools, two middle schools, two charter schools, and UNF. This is a must see!! This condo will not disappoint!!

16. 2021-06-02
    listed $210,000 Active 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Stunning - lovely ground floor unit with 3 bedroom & 2 baths in gated community of Hammock Grove condominium off of Kernan Blvd. The unit offers an open living area; living, dining and kitchen separates the master suite from the other 2 bedrooms. Other features include a screen enclosed patio, in-unit laundry & direct indoor access to the single attached garage. This home is ready for move-in with amenities to include a beautiful community pool, club facilities, play ground, waterpark & basket ball area. Only minutes from JTB, 295, downtown, and the beaches. Conveniently located near three elementary schools, two middle schools, two charter schools, and UNF. This is a must see!! This condo will not disappoint!!

17. 2021-04-28
    status Active 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the gated Hammock Grove condominium complex at Kernan Forest. Centrally located between the beaches and downtown with easy access to Arlington Expressway to TIAA Bank Jaguar Stadium and down town, the I-295 beltway, Town Center, UNF and FSCJ, as well as the St Johns River, Mayport Naval Base and JAX Port. This is a main floor unit, with an open living, dining and kitchen area that separates the Master Suite from the other bedrooms. It features an enclosed patio, in-unit laundry and direct indoor access to the single attached garage. Great condo, great community amenities and a great location!

18. 2021-04-28
    historical 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the gated Hammock Grove condominium complex at Kernan Forest. Centrally located between the beaches and downtown with easy access to Arlington Expressway to TIAA Bank Jaguar Stadium and down town, the I-295 beltway, Town Center, UNF and FSCJ, as well as the St Johns River, Mayport Naval Base and JAX Port. This is a main floor unit, with an open living, dining and kitchen area that separates the Master Suite from the other bedrooms. It features an enclosed patio, in-unit laundry and direct indoor access to the single attached garage. Great condo, great community amenities and a great location!

19. 2021-04-22
    historical Active - Contingent 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the gated Hammock Grove condominium complex at Kernan Forest. Centrally located between the beaches and downtown with easy access to Arlington Expressway to TIAA Bank Jaguar Stadium and down town, the I-295 beltway, Town Center, UNF and FSCJ, as well as the St Johns River, Mayport Naval Base and JAX Port. This is a main floor unit, with an open living, dining and kitchen area that separates the Master Suite from the other bedrooms. It features an enclosed patio, in-unit laundry and direct indoor access to the single attached garage. Great condo, great community amenities and a great location!

20. 2021-04-20
    listed $210,000 Active 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the gated Hammock Grove condominium complex at Kernan Forest. Centrally located between the beaches and downtown with easy access to Arlington Expressway to TIAA Bank Jaguar Stadium and down town, the I-295 beltway, Town Center, UNF and FSCJ, as well as the St Johns River, Mayport Naval Base and JAX Port. This is a main floor unit, with an open living, dining and kitchen area that separates the Master Suite from the other bedrooms. It features an enclosed patio, in-unit laundry and direct indoor access to the single attached garage. Great condo, great community amenities and a great location!

21. 2021-04-04
    historical
22. 2021-04-04
    listed $210,000 Active
23. 2017-12-04
    soldstatus $129,000
24. 2017-11-30
    soldstatus $129,000 Sold
25. 2017-11-27
    status Pending
26. 2017-11-21
    historical Active - Contingent
27. 2017-11-21
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,634 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,634 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$2,634
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − HOA: −$3,840
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable loss: −$3,764
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$903
• After-tax cash flow: $576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,905
• Household income: $90,559
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1670.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 14% Black 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.73%
• Current HPI: 307.1292
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.45%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+74.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $225,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $230,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-07 Sold (MLS) $205,000 realMLS
• 2021-06-07 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-06-02 Listed $210,000 realMLS
• 2021-04-28 Relisted — realMLS
• 2021-04-28 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2021-04-22 Contingent — realMLS
• 2021-04-20 Listed $210,000 realMLS
• 2021-04-04 Listed $210,000 realMLS
• 2021-04-04 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2017-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-30 Sold (MLS) $129,000 realMLS
• 2017-11-27 Pending — realMLS
• 2017-11-21 Contingent — realMLS
• 2017-11-21 Listed $129,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,634 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.