15602 Baronial Castle

Atascocita, TX 77346

$329,900D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,165 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,820/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$1,136
• HOA: −$73
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-711/mo
• Annual: $-8,535/yr
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.24%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $92,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-711 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.