15602 Baronial Castle · Atascocita, TX 77346

$329,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,165 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,860 sqft lot $152/sqft · 11% below area Est $369k · 11% under $73/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exquisite 4-bedroom, 3-bath residence positioned on a premium corner lot within the gated Balmoral community. This 2,165 sqft home showcases quartz countertops, impressive 8-foot doors, refined high-end finishes, brand-new carpet, and a fresh 2026 interior paint refresh. A private guest suite with en-suite bath and oversized “super shower” offers an ideal retreat for visitors. The extended concrete patio creates a perfect setting for outdoor entertaining. Enjoy exclusive access to Balmoral’s Crystal Lagoon & Beach Club, along with nearby Victory Park’s scenic green space and walking trails. Conveniently located near iSchool High of Atascocita and everyday shopping. No flood history. Impeccably maintained and truly move-in ready.

Key facts

• Premium corner lot
• Private guest suite
• 6,860 sq ft lot

Tags

• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE GUEST SUITE
• EXTENDED CONCRETE PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-711 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,633 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.24%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,454
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: -10.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15603 Beltie Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,257 (+4%)	4mo	$355,000	$157	88
12638 Banchory Leaf Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,334 (+8%)	2mo	$395,000	$169	79
15810 Black Grouse Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,046 (-6%)	4mo	$340,000	$166	75
15627 Countesswells Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,105 (-3%)	2mo	$319,900	$152	73
12826 Crombie Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,075 (-4%)	5mo	$315,000	$152	72
15806 Black Grouse Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,977 (-9%)	5mo	$333,265	$169	64
15710 Cairnwell Bend Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,024 (-6%)	2mo	$325,000	$161	61
16426 Apache Woods Way	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,930 (-11%)	3mo	$364,900	$189	52
12007 Texas Trumpet Trl S	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-8%)	2mo	$385,000	$194	48
12430 Ashgrove Point Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,348 (+8%)	0mo	$335,000	$143	44
12510 Pierson Hollow Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,453 (+13%)	3mo	$400,000	$163	42
15155 Silky Morning Ct	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,429 (+12%)	1mo	$340,000	$140	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-77,031
• Equity at exit: $80,360

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-127,073
• Equity at exit: $85,004

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$998 /mo · $11,982/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$73
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,720

Max offer price $239,633

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-524	-5% $-618	+0% $-711	+5% $-805	+10% $-898
Rent	-10% $-934	-5% $-823	+0% $-711	+5% $-600	+10% $-488
Rate	-1.0pp $-545	-0.5pp $-627	base $-711	+0.5pp $-797	+1.0pp $-884

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	44d	1	0.30mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	3d	1	0.30mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,976	$1.12	6d	1	0.40mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	25d	1	0.62mi
15713 Saxton Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1643	$2,858	$1.74	2d	36	0.69mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	2d	1	0.85mi
12138 Loch Muick Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,411	$1.28	6d	1	0.89mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	2d	1	0.93mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,716	$1.02	6d	1	0.95mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	44d	1	0.96mi
15957 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,200	$1.46	44d	1	0.98mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 15984 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,134	$1.42	11d	1	1.05mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3112 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,102	$1.40	3d	1	1.05mi
15863 Kinlough Dr Humble, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1326	$2,518	$1.90	3d	16	1.05mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,326	$0.99	6d	1	1.40mi
11522 Moonlight Ridge Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,366	$1.35	6d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $73 · $876/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $329,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $335,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $335,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $335,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $335,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $335,000 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    Exquisite 4-bedroom, 3-bath residence positioned on a premium corner lot within the gated Balmoral community. This 2,165 sqft home showcases quartz countertops, impressive 8-foot doors, refined high-end finishes, brand-new carpet, and a fresh 2026 interior paint refresh. A private guest suite with en-suite bath and oversized “super shower” offers an ideal retreat for visitors. The extended concrete patio creates a perfect setting for outdoor entertaining. Enjoy exclusive access to Balmoral’s Crystal Lagoon & Beach Club, along with nearby Victory Park’s scenic green space and walking trails. Conveniently located near iSchool High of Atascocita and everyday shopping. No flood history. Impeccably maintained and truly move-in ready.

16. 2026-04-22
    price $349,000 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    Exquisite 4-bedroom, 3-bath residence positioned on a premium corner lot within the gated Balmoral community. This 2,165 sqft home showcases quartz countertops, impressive 8-foot doors, refined high-end finishes, brand-new carpet, and a fresh 2026 interior paint refresh. A private guest suite with en-suite bath and oversized “super shower” offers an ideal retreat for visitors. The extended concrete patio creates a perfect setting for outdoor entertaining. Enjoy exclusive access to Balmoral’s Crystal Lagoon & Beach Club, along with nearby Victory Park’s scenic green space and walking trails. Conveniently located near iSchool High of Atascocita and everyday shopping. No flood history. Impeccably maintained and truly move-in ready.

17. 2026-03-31
    listed $360,000 Active 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    Exquisite 4-bedroom, 3-bath residence positioned on a premium corner lot within the gated Balmoral community. This 2,165 sqft home showcases quartz countertops, impressive 8-foot doors, refined high-end finishes, brand-new carpet, and a fresh 2026 interior paint refresh. A private guest suite with en-suite bath and oversized “super shower” offers an ideal retreat for visitors. The extended concrete patio creates a perfect setting for outdoor entertaining. Enjoy exclusive access to Balmoral’s Crystal Lagoon & Beach Club, along with nearby Victory Park’s scenic green space and walking trails. Conveniently located near iSchool High of Atascocita and everyday shopping. No flood history. Impeccably maintained and truly move-in ready.

18. 2026-03-24
    historical
19. 2026-03-17
    listed $360,000 Active
20. 2026-02-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,982 · $998/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,982 · $998/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$11,982
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,707
• − Management: −$2,707
• − HOA: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$14,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Balmoral offers a good condition with recent updates and a premium corner lot. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the curb appeal and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and could increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and could increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,982 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.