168 Hawthorne Ave

Tonawanda Town, NY 14223

$139,900B-

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,208 sqft · Built 1956 · MultiFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,294/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $1,635/mo
• Annual: $19,625/yr
• Cap rate: 20.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.10%
• DSCR: 3.23
• 1% rule: 2.35%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive. Per door: $818/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ben Franklin Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 459 students, 58% FRL); Ben Franklin Middle School (math 26% / reading 37%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 626 students, 47% FRL); Kenmore East Senior High School (math 73% / reading 47%, grade C+, #850 of 1,100 statewide, top 77%, 1,127 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,294/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 368% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.