168 Hawthorne Ave · Tonawanda Town, NY 14223

$139,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,208 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1956 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 168 Hawthorne! This 2-unit property is in need of a complete rehab and is ready for your vision. Ideal for investors, contractors, or anyone looking to restore and add value. Great potential for rental income or owner-occupant use once renovated. Conveniently located near local amenities and major routes. Bring your ideas and unlock the possibilities!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessed value provided
• Financial info: Multifamily (2 total units); 2 separate gas meters; 2 separate electric meters; Operating expenses: see remarks; Owner pays: see remarks; Rent includes: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with approximately 2.5 spaces; Concrete parking surfaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story property; Resale condition
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Construction details: see remarks; Existing structure (year built: existing)
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot (59 x 122)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Other features (see remarks); Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive. Per door: $834/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ben Franklin Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 459 students, 58% FRL); Ben Franklin Middle School (math 26% / reading 37%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 626 students, 47% FRL); Kenmore East Senior High School (math 73% / reading 47%, grade C+, #850 of 1,100 statewide, top 77%, 1,127 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,335/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 368% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.09%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,328
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Hawthorne Ave	0.28mi	6/2.0	2,208 (0%)	11mo	$312,000	$141	78
300 Windermere Blvd	0.36mi	6/2.0	2,325 (+5%)	2mo	$355,000	$153	73
150 Englewood Ave	0.56mi	6/2.0	2,239 (+1%)	6mo	$338,000	$151	67
345 Niagara Falls Blvd	0.16mi	6/2.0	1,893 (-14%)	19mo	$255,000	$135	53
157 Springville Ave	0.53mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,292 (+4%)	13mo	$300,000	$131	53
235 Heath St	0.61mi	6/2.0	2,058 (-7%)	10mo	$303,000	$147	52
1 Emsworth Ave	0.22mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,482 (+12%)	17mo	$250,000	$101	46
116 Nicholson St	0.62mi	6/2.0	2,464 (+12%)	13mo	$151,000	$61	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $83,606
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $209,789
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14223

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $1,668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,765	-5% $1,716	+0% $1,668	+5% $1,619	+10% $1,571
Rent	-10% $1,404	-5% $1,536	+0% $1,668	+5% $1,800	+10% $1,931
Rate	-1.0pp $1,738	-0.5pp $1,703	base $1,668	+0.5pp $1,632	+1.0pp $1,595

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$3,336
Total (2 units)			$3,335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
80 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.5	2591	$2,800	$1.08	3d	1	0.39mi
64 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	1.5	1512	$2,700	$1.79	45d	1	0.51mi
64 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	1.5	1512	$2,500	$1.65	3d	1	0.51mi
196 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	2560	$2,000	$0.78	3d	1	0.54mi
133 Merrimac St Buffalo, NY	7.0	2.0	2327	$4,450	$1.91	16d	1	0.65mi
4098 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.5	2108	$2,200	$1.04	45d	1	0.65mi
24 Custer St Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2500	$3,000	$1.20	16d	1	0.91mi
65 Northrup Pl Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	16d	1	0.92mi
85 Highgate Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2193	$3,750	$1.71	16d	1	0.99mi
175 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	16d	1	1.09mi
145 Minnesota Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	2.0	2551	$4,900	$1.92	16d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $139,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-27
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,202
• − Management: −$3,202
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $18,912
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,539
• After-tax cash flow: $15,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,611
• Household income: $84,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, India
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -245.18%
• Current HPI: 320.9379
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,105 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.