1515 Esbenshade Rd

Lancaster, PA 17601

$1,300,000B-

60 bd · 36.0 ba · 6,192 sqft · Built 1963 · MultiFamily · Pending · 166 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $14,568/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,817
• Tax + insurance: −$1,085
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,059
• Net cashflow: $3,606/mo
• Annual: $43,271/yr
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.89%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $364,000

Investor read

• This is a 6 × 10-bed/6.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.30M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive. Per door: $601/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.30M).
• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.14M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#71 in PA, #498 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Manheim Township SD (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #61 of 539 in PA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 81150% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $1.30M implies a 683% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $364k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.2% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $14,568/mo this rent would consume 171% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 1296% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.