19 Birchwood Pl

Palm Coast, FL 32137

$359,990D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,134 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,464/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-176/mo
• Annual: $-2,111/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $100,797

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (31.5% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1600 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $360k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.