19 Birchwood Pl · Palm Coast, FL 32137

$359,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,134 sqft · Land · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 10,778 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Majestic floorplan, part of our Value collection. This stunning home offers a harmonious blend of comfort and functionality, featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a generously sized 2 car garage. The split plan design ensures optimal privacy for the Owner's Suite, creating a serene retreat separate from the other three bedrooms. Within the Owner's Suite, you'll find a full bath and a spacious walk-in closet, providing both convenience and style. The heart of the home is found in the open concept kitchen and great room, creating an inviting space that effortlessly accommodates family gatherings and shared moments. Additionally, a welcoming den awaits you at the front of the home, offering a versatile space that can be adapted to suit your unique lifestyle. Crafted with our unwavering commitment to quality craftsmanship, the Majestic floorplan incorporates a range of energy-smart features, including a digital thermostat, an A/C system, a roof vent and soffit for efficient attic ventilation, and dual-pane energy-efficient windows. Designed with your comfort and sustainability in mind, this home embraces modern living.

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Spacious great room
• Split floor plan

Tags

• ISLAND-DESIGN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• TILE FLOORS IN LIVING AREAS
• REAR COVERED LANAI
• QUARTZ COUNTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: SFR-3; Unfurnished; Builder-reported living area: 2,134 (builder source); Total building area reported: 2,652 (builder source)
• HOA & community: Deed restrictions apply; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction; Southeast facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Holiday Builders (model: MAJESTIC)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Lot approximately 0.24 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom plan; Walk-in closets; Den/Library/Office; Great room
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1600 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $360k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,416 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-74,946
• Equity at exit: $53,676

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-100,964
• Equity at exit: $31,125

Cash invested: $100,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32137

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1600
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,018/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,687

Max offer price $328,907

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,998
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Fanshawe Ln Unit 1B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	2085	$2,350	$1.13	23d	1	0.35mi
1 Fanshawe Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	2085	$2,350	$1.13	14d	1	0.35mi
24 Barring Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,875	$1.12	23d	1	0.37mi
28 Freneau Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	2478	$2,300	$0.93	23d	1	0.51mi
44 Barrington Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,250	$1.21	14d	1	0.56mi
273 Beachway Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1784	$2,450	$1.37	23d	1	0.66mi
88 Boulder Rock Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	2306	$2,700	$1.17	23d	1	0.84mi
13 Freemont Ct Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,300	$1.41	2d	1	0.84mi
63 Beaverdam Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1591	$1,895	$1.19	2d	1	0.87mi
69 Beckner Ln Unit NA Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,998	$1.42	2d	1	0.93mi
12 Bunker View Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,725	$1.08	2d	1	0.95mi
59 Fallen Oak Ln Unit 1261618P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	1797	$3,355	$1.87	14d	1	0.97mi
34 Bunker Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,200	$1.27	23d	1	1.10mi
7 Biltvue Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2458	$2,250	$0.92	23d	1	1.11mi
53 Brownstone Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1582	$1,950	$1.23	2d	1	1.13mi
26 Brooklyn Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,250	$1.21	18d	1	1.19mi
78 Belvedere Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,750	$1.12	14d	1	1.19mi
77 Folcroft Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2472	$2,600	$1.05	23d	1	1.20mi
70 Forrester Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	2d	1	1.23mi
31 Folson Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	1.0	1481	$1,639	$1.11	23d	1	1.28mi
14 Colechester Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2033	$3,000	$1.48	23d	1	1.31mi
11 Ferris Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,800	$1.87	2d	1	1.40mi
20 Bressler Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	2141	$2,060	$0.96	23d	1	1.41mi
10 Flametree Ct Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2581	$2,800	$1.08	2d	1	1.42mi
73 Bruce Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	2245	$2,189	$0.98	2d	1	1.43mi
102 Brittany Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1902	$2,450	$1.29	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,990 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,990 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,990 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,990 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $359,990 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,990 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,990 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,990 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,990 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,990 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,990 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,990 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,990 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,990 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $359,990 1151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1151 chars)

    Discover the Majestic floorplan, part of our Value collection. This stunning home offers a harmonious blend of comfort and functionality, featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a generously sized 2 car garage. The split plan design ensures optimal privacy for the Owner's Suite, creating a serene retreat separate from the other three bedrooms. Within the Owner's Suite, you'll find a full bath and a spacious walk-in closet, providing both convenience and style. The heart of the home is found in the open concept kitchen and great room, creating an inviting space that effortlessly accommodates family gatherings and shared moments. Additionally, a welcoming den awaits you at the front of the home, offering a versatile space that can be adapted to suit your unique lifestyle. Crafted with our unwavering commitment to quality craftsmanship, the Majestic floorplan incorporates a range of energy-smart features, including a digital thermostat, an A/C system, a roof vent and soffit for efficient attic ventilation, and dual-pane energy-efficient windows. Designed with your comfort and sustainability in mind, this home embraces modern living.

16. 2026-05-13
    price $359,990
17. 2026-04-21
    listed $362,990 Active
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $362,990 Active 1151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1151 chars)

    Discover the Majestic floorplan, part of our Value collection. This stunning home offers a harmonious blend of comfort and functionality, featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a generously sized 2 car garage. The split plan design ensures optimal privacy for the Owner's Suite, creating a serene retreat separate from the other three bedrooms. Within the Owner's Suite, you'll find a full bath and a spacious walk-in closet, providing both convenience and style. The heart of the home is found in the open concept kitchen and great room, creating an inviting space that effortlessly accommodates family gatherings and shared moments. Additionally, a welcoming den awaits you at the front of the home, offering a versatile space that can be adapted to suit your unique lifestyle. Crafted with our unwavering commitment to quality craftsmanship, the Majestic floorplan incorporates a range of energy-smart features, including a digital thermostat, an A/C system, a roof vent and soffit for efficient attic ventilation, and dual-pane energy-efficient windows. Designed with your comfort and sustainability in mind, this home embraces modern living.

19. 2024-09-12
    soldstatus $70,000
20. 1985-03-01
    soldstatus $6,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,988 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,970/yr (+$164/mo · 193.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,165
• − Property taxes: −$1,018
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − Depreciation: −$10,472
• Taxable loss: −$8,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,068
• After-tax cash flow: $-43/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,391
• Household income: $83,923
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 816.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.27%
• Current HPI: 290.4607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5706.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $359,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $362,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $362,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,018 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.