449 G

Coronado, CA 92118

$1,750,000D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,148 sqft · Built 1982 · Townhouse · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,177
• Tax + insurance: −$1,872
• HOA: −$375
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,689
• Net cashflow: $-5,071/mo
• Annual: $-60,852/yr
• Cap rate: 2.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.42%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $490,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $1.75M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-61k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $854k (51.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $804k (54.0% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.70M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $804k (54.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#249 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Coronado Unified (suburban): math 61% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #47 of 517 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.08M; list at $1.75M implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$130k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 0.8% in Coronado — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,042/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($135k/yr) (locally 1052% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.