8911 Cranes Nest Ct

Cypress Lake, FL 33908

$339,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,679 sqft · Built 2003 · Townhouse · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,398/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$732
• HOA: −$317
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-142/mo
• Annual: $-1,705/yr
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (7.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $339k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $314k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#257 in FL, #4,125 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1244 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.8% in Cypress Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,398/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1944% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?