8911 Cranes Nest Ct · Cypress Lake, FL 33908

$339,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,679 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2003 4,848 sqft lot Est $353k · at est. $317/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Colony Lakes 3/2/2 lakefront villa home partially furnished. Owners are only taking three pieces. New roof in July of 25. Colony Lakes is conveniently located to Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, and Captiva. It is close to supermarkets, retail shopping and is 20 minutes to the airport. This unit has southern exposure. Low HOA fees cover the community pool, clubhouse, exercise room and periodic villa painting. Newer stainless steel appliances and 42-inch cabinets Extra refrigerator in the garage. Ring doorbell and garage security camera. Extended Lanai also furnished. The primary bathroom has split vanities, a walk-in shower and a soaking tub. Private water closet. Unit is owned by the original oc

Key facts

• Southern exposure
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• LAKEFRONT VILLA
• SOUTHERN EXPOSURE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• EXERCISE ROOM
• 42 INCH CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Part of an association with 168 units; Quarterly association fee ($950); Association covers irrigation water and road maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, and management; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Cable available; High speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story; North-facing; Resale property
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; 1 story
• Exterior features: Patio; Lanai / screened porch; Room for pool; Shutters (manual); Guest house attached; Pond on lot; South exposure; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Includes a home office (listed as a room type)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Bathtub; Entrance foyer; Open living/dining area; Pantry; Separate shower; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Home office; Partially furnished; Double-hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Part of utilities: high speed internet available, cable available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (7.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $339k).
• Recommended offer: $314k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.8% in Cypress Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#257 in FL, #4,125 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1244 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,398/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1944% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,903 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,590
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8804 Middlebrook Dr #102	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (-6%)	3mo	$337,500	$214	61
9310 Bayberry Bnd #103	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (-0%)	5mo	$388,500	$233	59
16431 Millstone Cir #101	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (-6%)	0mo	$279,900	$176	54
8928 Bristol Bnd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (-6%)	2mo	$345,000	$219	53
9220 Bayberry Bnd #102	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,477 (-12%)	3mo	$310,000	$210	52
16431 Millstone Cir #206	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,499 (-11%)	2mo	$259,900	$173	49
9221 Bayberry Bnd #203	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,854 (+10%)	3mo	$418,000	$225	48
9290 Bayberry Bnd #202	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,461 (-13%)	3mo	$290,000	$198	46
16450 Millstone Cir #101	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (-6%)	8mo	$280,000	$177	44
8968 Bristol Bnd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (-6%)	8mo	$340,000	$216	44
9170 Bayberry Bnd #102	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,477 (-12%)	8mo	$270,000	$183	42
17020 Willowcrest Way #210	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (-11%)	7mo	$230,000	$154	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-73,591
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-112,801
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33908

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1244
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,968/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$317
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,578

Max offer price $313,903

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $-46	+0% $-142	+5% $-238	+10% $-334
Rent	-10% $-411	-5% $-276	+0% $-142	+5% $-8	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-56	base $-142	+0.5pp $-230	+1.0pp $-319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17006 Middlebrook Ct Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1247	$6,300	$5.05	15d	1	0.43mi
17006 Middlebrook Ct Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1498	$6,300	$4.21	16d	1	0.43mi
16320 Willowcrest Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1751	$8,700	$4.97	15d	1	0.46mi
9250 Bayberry Bnd #202 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1669	$4,950	$2.97	15d	1	0.51mi
9240 Bayberry Bnd #103 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$6,600	$4.17	24d	1	0.52mi
9241 Bayberry Bnd #103 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$4,725	$2.98	15d	1	0.55mi
8549 S Lake Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2091	$3,500	$1.67	24d	1	0.57mi
9240 Willowcrest Ct Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1752	$8,500	$4.85	15d	1	0.58mi
9201 Bayberry Bnd #103 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1724	$3,500	$2.03	24d	1	0.61mi
16421 Millstone Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$4,400	$4.12	16d	2	0.63mi
9190 Southmont Cv #309 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$6,500	$4.88	2d	1	0.70mi
16430 Millstone Cir #103 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$6,300	$5.90	15d	1	0.70mi
17020 Willowcrest Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1344	$2,500	$1.86	16d	2	0.71mi
11848 Bayport Ln #2002 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,200	$1.32	24d	1	0.73mi
16440 Millstone Cir #203 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$6,300	$5.90	15d	1	0.73mi
16471 Millstone Cir #303 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$6,100	$5.71	15d	1	0.73mi
16491 Millstone Cir #207 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1348	$2,000	$1.48	15d	1	0.75mi
16481 Millstone Cir #207 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$2,700	$2.00	24d	1	0.75mi
9170 Southmont Cv Fort Myers, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1358	$4,725	$3.48	15d	1	0.76mi
8837 E Bay Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,600	$2.25	24d	1	0.79mi
8986 Greenwich Hills Way #201 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	2040	$5,200	$2.55	24d	1	0.88mi
9140 Southmont Cv #102 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,500	$1.88	15d	1	0.89mi
17100 Bridgestone Ct #303 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$4,575	$3.89	15d	1	0.96mi
17120 Bridgestone Ct #104 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$2,400	$2.04	3d	1	1.06mi
17120 Bridgestone Ct #104 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1282	$2,400	$1.87	24d	1	1.06mi
15250 Sonoma Dr Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1252	$1,888	$1.51	3d	31	1.06mi
3705 Stoneridge Ct Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	20d	1	1.19mi
15800 Portofino Springs Blvd #102 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1761	$2,500	$1.42	24d	1	1.23mi
9470 Sardinia Way #107 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1761	$2,300	$1.31	3d	1	1.29mi
16214 Via Solera Cir #5 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	24d	1	1.30mi
9813 Quinta Artesa Way #103 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1819	$2,250	$1.24	15d	1	1.49mi
9813 Quinta Artesa Way #104 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1819	$1,850	$1.02	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $317 · $3,804/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $339,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $339,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,814 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$846/yr (+$70/mo · 43.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$1,968
• − Insurance: −$6,814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,262
• − Management: −$3,262
• − HOA: −$3,804
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$7,184
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,724
• After-tax cash flow: $19/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cypress Lake

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #4125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 30,300
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,423
• Household income: $75,396
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1944.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.22%
• Current HPI: 209.7595
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.18%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-73.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $339,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-06-05 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $404,900 FORTMLS
• 2003-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $377,500 Public Records
• 2000-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $1,300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,968 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.