765 Mesa View Dr #196

Callender, CA 93420

$245,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,346/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$703
• Net cashflow: $1,181/mo
• Annual: $14,166/yr
• Cap rate: 12.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.65%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,037 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lucia Mar Unified (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #433 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oceano Elementary (359 students, 85% FRL); Mesa Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 465 students, 73% FRL); Nipomo High (891 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lucia Mar Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.