765 Mesa View Dr #196 · Callender, CA 93420

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2000 $168/sqft · 11% above area Est $222k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on the peaceful Arroyo Grande Mesa, life at 765 Mesa Dunes Dr Unit 196 offers something special, coastal living with comfort, community, and affordability. Mornings here begin slowly. Sunlight pours through the large windows and fills the open living space, where soaring ceilings create an airy sense of calm. The home flows effortlessly from the living room into the kitchen, making it easy to imagine everything from quiet mornings with coffee to evenings spent entertaining friends and family. The kitchen is both stylish and practical, featuring modern appliances, generous cabinet storage, and a breakfast bar that naturally becomes the gathering place for everyday life. With three spacious bedrooms, this home offers flexibility for whatever stage of life you’re in. The primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and its own private bathroom, your own quiet space to recharge at the end of the day. The additional bedrooms can easily adapt to your needs, whether for guests, a home office, or creative space. Beyond the home itself, life in the Mesa Dunes Mobile Home Estates community offers a lifestyle that’s both active and relaxed. Residents enjoy access to amenities including pools, a clubhouse, basketball courts, a billiards room, fitness center, parks, and more. It’s a neighborhood designed for connection, recreation, and easy living. And the location couldn’t be better. Just minutes away, you’ll find the charming shops and restaurants of Arroyo Grande Village, beautiful beaches along the Central Coast, and the scenic vineyards that make this region so loved. Because at the end of the day, this isn’t just a home, t’s a chance to live where the ocean breeze meets the quiet charm of the Mesa. Park Approval Required. No age requirement park.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Modern appliances
• Soaring ceilings

Tags

• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• SOARING CEILINGS
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS CABINET STORAGE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,037 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lucia Mar Unified (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #433 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oceano Elementary (359 students, 85% FRL); Mesa Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 465 students, 73% FRL); Nipomo High (891 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lucia Mar Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.65%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,623
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: 10.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
765 Mesa View Dr #137	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+6%)	0mo	$290,000	$187	89
765 Mesa View Dr #269	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+4%)	9mo	$179,000	$118	86
765 Mesa View Dr #13	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+5%)	6mo	$350,000	$228	86
765 Mesa View Dr #270	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+8%)	1mo	$286,500	$182	85
765 Mesa View Dr #280	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+4%)	10mo	$219,900	$145	85
765 Mesa View Dr #290	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-9%)	2mo	$270,000	$205	83
765 Mesa View Dr #152	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-12%)	12mo	$245,000	$190	71
765 Mesa View Dr #199	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	9mo	$175,000	$140	69
765 Mesa View Dr #293	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	11mo	$230,000	$184	67
765 Mesa View Dr #155	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-11%)	12mo	$100,000	$77	67
765 Mesa View Dr #272	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	13mo	$145,000	$116	65
765 Mesa View Dr #61	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	13mo	$205,000	$164	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $35,397
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $127,272
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93420

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $913/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$703
• Net cashflow: $1,181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,319	-5% $1,250	+0% $1,181	+5% $1,111	+10% $1,042
Rent	-10% $916	-5% $1,048	+0% $1,181	+5% $1,313	+10% $1,445
Rate	-1.0pp $1,304	-0.5pp $1,243	base $1,181	+0.5pp $1,117	+1.0pp $1,052

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
765 Mesa View Dr #57 Arroyo Grande, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,775	$1.93	45d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-03-15
    listed $245,000 Active 1853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1853 chars)

    Tucked away on the peaceful Arroyo Grande Mesa, life at 765 Mesa Dunes Dr Unit 196 offers something special, coastal living with comfort, community, and affordability. Mornings here begin slowly. Sunlight pours through the large windows and fills the open living space, where soaring ceilings create an airy sense of calm. The home flows effortlessly from the living room into the kitchen, making it easy to imagine everything from quiet mornings with coffee to evenings spent entertaining friends and family. The kitchen is both stylish and practical, featuring modern appliances, generous cabinet storage, and a breakfast bar that naturally becomes the gathering place for everyday life. With three spacious bedrooms, this home offers flexibility for whatever stage of life you’re in. The primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and its own private bathroom, your own quiet space to recharge at the end of the day. The additional bedrooms can easily adapt to your needs, whether for guests, a home office, or creative space. Beyond the home itself, life in the Mesa Dunes Mobile Home Estates community offers a lifestyle that’s both active and relaxed. Residents enjoy access to amenities including pools, a clubhouse, basketball courts, a billiards room, fitness center, parks, and more. It’s a neighborhood designed for connection, recreation, and easy living. And the location couldn’t be better. Just minutes away, you’ll find the charming shops and restaurants of Arroyo Grande Village, beautiful beaches along the Central Coast, and the scenic vineyards that make this region so loved. Because at the end of the day, this isn’t just a home, t’s a chance to live where the ocean breeze meets the quiet charm of the Mesa. Park Approval Required. No age requirement park.

18. 2026-01-26
    historical
19. 2025-09-25
    price $249,000
20. 2025-03-04
    price $259,000
21. 2024-11-07
    listed $299,000 Active
22. 2024-09-30
    historical
23. 2024-05-08
    price $235,000
24. 2024-05-04
    price $249,000
25. 2024-05-03
    price $259,000
26. 2024-01-17
    price $269,000
27. 2023-12-08
    price $289,000
28. 2023-10-29
    price $299,000
29. 2023-10-26
    price $303,000
30. 2023-09-07
    price $309,000
31. 2023-08-22
    price $315,000
32. 2023-07-21
    listed $323,000 Active
33. 2023-07-09
    historical
34. 2023-06-23
    historical
35. 2023-02-21
    price $326,000
36. 2023-02-09
    price $336,000
37. 2023-01-25
    price $346,000
38. 2023-01-04
    listed $359,000 Active
39. 2022-06-09
    soldstatus $170,000 Closed Sale
40. 2022-05-12
    status Pending Sale
41. 2022-05-07
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$949/yr (+$79/mo · 103.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥79°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$913
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,212
• − Management: −$3,212
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $10,741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,578
• After-tax cash flow: $11,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucia Mar Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623080
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,681
• Composite: 45.19/100
• National rank: #5782
• State rank: #433 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Callender

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1037
• US rank: #25071

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Luis Obispo County · 224,651 people
• Metro: San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,345
• Household income: $110,553
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 882.0

Population outlook (San Luis Obispo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 306,977 people
• By 2030: 320,378 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 343,933 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 366,853 · +19.5%
• By 2075: 428,329 · +39.5%
• By 2100: 460,687 · +50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Luis Obispo

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.5pp toward D · 2008: 5.4pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+8.3 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -798.57%
• Current HPI: 348.2038
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+53.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Listed $245,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-17 Price Changed $269,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-08 Price Changed $289,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-29 Price Changed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-26 Price Changed $303,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $309,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-22 Price Changed $315,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-21 Listed $323,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-09 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2023-06-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-02-21 Price Changed $326,000 CRMLS
• 2023-02-09 Price Changed $336,000 CRMLS
• 2023-01-25 Price Changed $346,000 CRMLS
• 2023-01-04 Listed $359,000 CRMLS
• 2022-06-09 Sold (MLS) $170,000 CRMLS
• 2022-05-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-05-07 Listed $159,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $913 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.