Ashton Plan

Milford, MI 48381

$469,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,883 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 388 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,420/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,502
• Tax + insurance: −$795
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $-595/mo
• Annual: $-7,140/yr
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.35%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $133,566

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $470k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-595 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $342k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 388 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $342k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#17 in MI, #275 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Huron Valley Schools (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #87 of 540 in MI (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 397 students, 41% FRL); Oak Valley Middle School (math 44% / reading 59%, grade C, #102 of 493 statewide, top 21%, 492 students, 29% FRL); Milford High School (math 47% / reading 68%, grade C, #95 of 713 statewide, top 14%, 1,273 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.2% in Milford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 388 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.