Ashton Plan · Milford, MI 48381

$469,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,883 sqft · Townhouse · 388 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ashton provides up to 2,097 sq ft with the space and design for any lifestyle. The open floor plan off the kitchen is a must-have whether entertaining friends or cooking a meal for family. With a second floor laundry room, convenience is right around the corner.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 387 days

🏗️ New construction. The $469,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $477,022.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $470k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-597 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $342k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $342k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.2% in Milford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#17 in MI, #275 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Huron Valley Schools (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #87 of 540 in MI (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 397 students, 41% FRL); Oak Valley Middle School (math 44% / reading 59%, grade C, #102 of 493 statewide, top 21%, 492 students, 29% FRL); Milford High School (math 47% / reading 68%, grade C, #95 of 713 statewide, top 14%, 1,273 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 388 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $341,679 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 388 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $477,022
• List price: $469,990
• Delta: -1.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1515 Superior Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,983 (+5%)	2mo	$366,215	$185	87
1469 Superior Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,983 (+5%)	2mo	$404,990	$204	86
1470 Superior Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,983 (+5%)	4mo	$459,990	$232	85
1466 Superior Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,983 (+5%)	4mo	$451,990	$228	85
1459 Arcadia Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,097 (+11%)	0mo	$365,000	$174	79
1511 Superior Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,097 (+11%)	1mo	$414,000	$197	78
1511 Superior Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,097 (+11%)	1mo	$414,000	$197	78
1462 Superior Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,097 (+11%)	1mo	$469,990	$224	78
1473 Superior Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,097 (+11%)	1mo	$399,990	$191	77
1465 Superior Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,097 (+11%)	3mo	$434,990	$207	76
2039 Marigold Way	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,892 (+0%)	0mo	$739,806	$391	72
2047 Marigold Way	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,892 (+0%)	2mo	$814,771	$431	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-115,290
• Equity at exit: $71,125

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-149,171
• Equity at exit: $41,244

Cash invested: $133,566 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.3 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $504,990 ($280/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 48381

• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,502
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$596 /mo · $7,155/yr
• Insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $-597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,173

Max offer price $390,588

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-268	-5% $-432	+0% $-597	+5% $-762	+10% $-927
Rent	-10% $-867	-5% $-732	+0% $-597	+5% $-462	+10% $-327
Rate	-1.0pp $-357	-0.5pp $-476	base $-597	+0.5pp $-721	+1.0pp $-847

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,255
• Closing costs: $14,311
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1445 Superior Dr Milford, MI	3.0	2.5	2079	$3,050	$1.47	67d	1	0.04mi
4881 Marquette Dr Milford, MI	4.0	2.5	2400	$4,000	$1.67	7d	1	0.07mi
57490 Lyon Crossing Blvd New Hudson, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1151	$2,930	$2.55	7d	20	0.62mi
30017 Center St #015 New Hudson, MI	2.0	2.5	1331	$2,200	$1.65	7d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $469,990 Active 388 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $469,990 Active 386 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $469,990 Active 385 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $469,990 Active 384 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $469,990 Active 383 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $469,990 Active 380 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $469,990 Active 379 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $469,990 Active 378 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $469,990 Active 377 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $469,990 Active 375 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $469,990 Active 373 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $469,990 Active 372 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $469,990 Active 371 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $469,990 Active 370 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $469,990 Active 369 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $469,990 Active 367 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $469,990 Active 366 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $469,990 Active 365 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $469,990 Active 364 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $469,990 Active 363 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $469,990 Active 362 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $469,990 Active 361 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $469,990 Active 360 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $469,990 Active 359 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $469,990 Active 358 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $469,990 Active 356 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $469,990 Active 355 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $469,990 Active 354 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $469,990 Active 353 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $469,990 Active 352 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $469,990 Active 351 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $469,990 Active 350 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $469,990 Active 349 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $469,990 Active 348 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $469,990 Active 347 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $469,990 Active 346 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $469,990 Active 345 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $509,990 Active 343 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $509,990 Active 341 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $509,990 Active 340 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $464,990 Active 337 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $464,990 Active 336 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $464,990 Active 335 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $399,990 Active 334 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 332 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 331 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $399,990 Active 328 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,990 Active 327 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,990 Active 326 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $399,990 Active 323 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,721
• − Property taxes: −$7,155
• − Insurance: −$2,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,280
• − Management: −$3,280
• − Depreciation: −$13,877
• Taxable loss: −$15,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,767
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and well-maintained landscaping. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern fixtures can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms — Upgrading to high-end flooring can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Johnson Elementary School F MI #606/1,397 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Muir Middle School C+ MI #86/493 Nat'l #2,785/14,009 High Milford High School C MI #95/713 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huron Valley Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618990
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $76,011
• Composite: 44.39/100
• National rank: #2815
• State rank: #87 of 540 in MI

A Composite livability gradescore 87/100

Livability — Milford

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #275

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland · 1,335,747 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 13,737
• Household income: $103,156
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

---

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -303.22%
• Current HPI: 200.4953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $429,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $455,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $499,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $434,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $465,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $462,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $487,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $446,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $516,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $515,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $482,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $486,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-16 Listed $515,990 Zillow