3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1 sqft ·
Built 1998
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,942/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$550
Tax + insurance
−$175
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$408
Net cashflow
$809/mo
Annual
$9,712/yr
Cap rate
15.55%
Cash-on-cash
33.07%
DSCR
2.47
1% rule
1.85%
Cash to close
$29,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $809 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#28 in CO, #3,380 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
Adams 12 Five Star Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 86 in CO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Federal Heights Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #958 of 966 statewide, top 100%, 414 students, 87% FRL); Northglenn Middle School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #246 of 270 statewide, top 91%, 684 students, 85% FRL); Northglenn High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #257 of 381 statewide, top 68%, 1,959 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 33% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Adams 12 Five Star Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 138 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
28 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $28k; list at $105k implies a 281% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 4.2% in Federal Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PQXWWB4YX79CG2
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29