38 Walnut St

Batavia, NY 14020

$174,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · Built 1800 · MultiFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,943/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $1,200/mo
• Annual: $14,396/yr
• Cap rate: 14.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.40%
• DSCR: 2.31
• 1% rule: 1.68%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $600/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#536 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Batavia City School District (town): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #477 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Kennedy School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,356 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 481 students, 56% FRL); Batavia Middle School (math 23% / reading 50%, grade F, #464 of 729 statewide, top 64%, 595 students, 54% FRL); Batavia High School (math 87% / reading 75%, grade A, #485 of 1,100 statewide, top 45%, 645 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $175k implies a 336% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 5.5% in Batavia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,943/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.