6230 Hayes St

Oakland, CA 94621

$430,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,501 sqft · Built 1959 · MultiFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,168/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$1,089
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,085
• Net cashflow: $739/mo
• Annual: $8,867/yr
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.36%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $739 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $369/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $430k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $404k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $71k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.4% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,168/mo this rent would consume 119% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 2404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?