2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
924 sqft ·
Built 1970
· Other
· Active
· 139 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,109/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,596
Tax + insurance
−$1,259
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,073
Net cashflow
$181/mo
Annual
$2,168/yr
Cap rate
7.76%
Cash-on-cash
5.26%
DSCR
1.23
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$138,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $495k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $495k).
It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $436k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $24k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 614 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $139k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $5,109/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($131k/yr) (locally 333% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PS2C903H35C1W7
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29