1450 N Dixie Downs Rd #51

St. George, UT 84770

$120,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,715/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$600
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-893/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-893/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (9.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Washington District (urban): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #37 of 80 in UT (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Mountain School (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 585 statewide, top 71%, 434 students, 59% FRL); Lava Ridge Intermediate (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #61 of 138 statewide, top 47%, 815 students, 42% FRL); Snow Canyon High (math 32% / reading 48%, grade F, #62 of 171 statewide, top 36%, 1,266 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 779 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,140 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (650 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.