23882 Ellie Ln #6

Primera, TX 78552

$169,999C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,613/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,194/yr
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.51%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (5.1% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,263 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.