23882 Ellie Ln #6 · Primera, TX 78552

$169,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 1999 Good condition 5,250 sqft lot $144/sqft · 15% below area Est $200k · 15% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready 3/2 in Harlingen! Tile floors throughout, spacious living area, and a functional kitchen with stainless appliances. Private backyard with gated entry. Great location near schools & conveniently located near popular local restaurants. This home is a great opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a move-in ready home.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Tile floors
• Spacious living area

Tags

• TILE FLOORS
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• GATED ENTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,263 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,307 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.51%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,164
• List price: $169,999
• Delta: -15.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4403 Botts Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,060 (-10%)	6mo	$149,900	$141	49
17231 Mandarin Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+11%)	10mo	$199,900	$153	45
23280 Tangerine Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+6%)	21mo	$185,000	$148	42
23309 Tangerine Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (+13%)	5mo	$195,000	$147	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-25,913
• Equity at exit: $25,347

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-32,574
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78552

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $169,999

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23861 Ellie Ln Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,650	$1.35	21d	1	0.07mi
1007 El Paso Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,600	$1.33	43d	1	0.43mi
1716 Palm Valley Dr W Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,450	$1.23	13d	1	0.95mi
17931 Spruce St Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,850	$1.44	43d	1	1.35mi
6020 Masters Blvd Unit 2 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,075	$1.07	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   Move-in ready 3/2 in Harlingen! Tile floors throughout, spacious living area, and a functional kitchen with stainless appliances. Private backyard with gated entry. Great location near schools & conveniently located near popular local restaurants. This home is a great opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a move-in ready home.

2. 2026-04-26
   price $169,999 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   Move-in ready 3/2 in Harlingen! Tile floors throughout, spacious living area, and a functional kitchen with stainless appliances. Private backyard with gated entry. Great location near schools & conveniently located near popular local restaurants. This home is a great opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a move-in ready home.

3. 2026-04-08
   listed $174,900 Active 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   Move-in ready 3/2 in Harlingen! Tile floors throughout, spacious living area, and a functional kitchen with stainless appliances. Private backyard with gated entry. Great location near schools & conveniently located near popular local restaurants. This home is a great opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a move-in ready home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,608
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$386
• After-tax cash flow: $1,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready 3/2 home in Harlingen features tile floors, stainless steel appliances, and a private backyard with gated entry. Minor updates to exterior and interior paint could further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans reduce energy costs and improve comfort
• Both Install smart home devices for energy management and security — Smart devices improve convenience and add value for potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans reduce energy costs and improve comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices for energy management and security — Smart devices improve convenience and add value for potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Primera

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1263
• US rank: #21994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Primera, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,332
• Household income: $69,811
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 31% White 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.61%
• Current HPI: 197.1906
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $169,999 RGVMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $174,900 RGVMLS