8615 Rock Creek Rd

Mulberry, AR 72947

$96,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 2010 · Manufactured · Active · 271 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax + insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,200/yr
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $26,880

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($664 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#281 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountainburg School District (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #136 of 238 in AR (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.