8615 Rock Creek Rd · Mulberry, AR 72947

$96,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 271 Days on market

Built 2010 $107/sqft · 5% below area Est $108k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Country Retreat on 4.5 Wooded Acres! This well-kept 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfectly set on 4.5 beautiful, private wooded acres and offers a spacious split, open floor plan that’s move-in ready. The kitchen features ample cabinet space and comes equipped with a refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher. The dining area opens to a cozy living room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The primary suite offers its own private bathroom with a tub/shower combo and a generous walk-in closet. A nice-sized laundry room with a stacked washer and dryer that convey adds extra convenience. With 896 sq. ft. of comfortable living space surrounded by serene natural beauty, you’ll love the peace and privacy this property provides. Conveniently located just 1 mile from the Mulberry T. J. Reservoir—with easy access for fishing, boating, kayaking, and swimming—and 6 miles to I-40, this home provides an easy commute to Alma, Fort Smith, Northwest Arkansas, or Ozark.

Key facts

• 4.5 acre lot
• Built 2010
• Listed 270 days

Tags

• 4.5 ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#281 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountainburg School District (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #136 of 238 in AR (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($664 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,446
• List price: $96,000
• Delta: -11.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8615 Rock Creek Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	7mo	$99,700	$111	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $58,608
• Equity at exit: $86,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $167,496
• Equity at exit: $186,507

Cash invested: $26,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72947

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $330/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $723

Max offer price $96,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,000
• Closing costs: $2,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $96,000 Active 271 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $96,000 Active 270 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $96,000 Active 269 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $96,000 Active 268 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $96,000 Active 264 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $96,000 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $96,000 Active 262 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $96,000 Active 261 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $96,000 Active 260 DOM
10. 2025-11-24
    soldstatus $99,700
11. 2025-11-21
    soldstatus $99,700 Closed 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    Charming Country Retreat on 4.5 Wooded Acres! This well-kept 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfectly set on 4.5 beautiful, private wooded acres and offers a spacious split, open floor plan that’s move-in ready. The kitchen features ample cabinet space and comes equipped with a refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher. The dining area opens to a cozy living room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The primary suite offers its own private bathroom with a tub/shower combo and a generous walk-in closet. A nice-sized laundry room with a stacked washer and dryer that convey adds extra convenience. With 896 sq. ft. of comfortable living space surrounded by serene natural beauty, you’ll love the peace and privacy this property provides. Conveniently located just 1 mile from the Mulberry T. J. Reservoir—with easy access for fishing, boating, kayaking, and swimming—and 6 miles to I-40, this home provides an easy commute to Alma, Fort Smith, Northwest Arkansas, or Ozark.

12. 2025-10-27
    status Pending 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    Charming Country Retreat on 4.5 Wooded Acres! This well-kept 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfectly set on 4.5 beautiful, private wooded acres and offers a spacious split, open floor plan that’s move-in ready. The kitchen features ample cabinet space and comes equipped with a refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher. The dining area opens to a cozy living room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The primary suite offers its own private bathroom with a tub/shower combo and a generous walk-in closet. A nice-sized laundry room with a stacked washer and dryer that convey adds extra convenience. With 896 sq. ft. of comfortable living space surrounded by serene natural beauty, you’ll love the peace and privacy this property provides. Conveniently located just 1 mile from the Mulberry T. J. Reservoir—with easy access for fishing, boating, kayaking, and swimming—and 6 miles to I-40, this home provides an easy commute to Alma, Fort Smith, Northwest Arkansas, or Ozark.

13. 2025-10-17
    listed $99,700 Active 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    Charming Country Retreat on 4.5 Wooded Acres! This well-kept 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfectly set on 4.5 beautiful, private wooded acres and offers a spacious split, open floor plan that’s move-in ready. The kitchen features ample cabinet space and comes equipped with a refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher. The dining area opens to a cozy living room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The primary suite offers its own private bathroom with a tub/shower combo and a generous walk-in closet. A nice-sized laundry room with a stacked washer and dryer that convey adds extra convenience. With 896 sq. ft. of comfortable living space surrounded by serene natural beauty, you’ll love the peace and privacy this property provides. Conveniently located just 1 mile from the Mulberry T. J. Reservoir—with easy access for fishing, boating, kayaking, and swimming—and 6 miles to I-40, this home provides an easy commute to Alma, Fort Smith, Northwest Arkansas, or Ozark.

14. 2025-09-10
    listed $96,000 Active 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    4.5 acre lot with manufactured home. Great place to start building your dream home in this very quiet and peaceful area. Located at the corner of Rock Creek and Brooks Ridge Road north of Mulberry. The manufactured home has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $330 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $614 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$284/yr (+$24/mo · 86.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,377
• − Property taxes: −$330
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$815
• − Management: −$815
• − Depreciation: −$2,793
• Taxable loss: −$420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$101
• After-tax cash flow: $1,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountainburg School District
• NCES district ID: 0510260
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,076
• Composite: 27.22/100
• National rank: #7016
• State rank: #136 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mulberry

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #281
• US rank: #19696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,874

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,108 people
• By 2030: 61,519 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 59,735 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 57,521 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 53,143 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 49,596 · -20.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 19.9% · R 78.1% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.1pp toward R · 2008: -46.0pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+56.7 2016: R+55.0 2012: R+49.9 2008: R+46.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.47%
• Current HPI: 306.7802
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+3.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $99,700 Public Records
• 2025-11-21 Sold (MLS) $99,700 WRVBOR
• 2025-10-27 Pending — WRVBOR
• 2025-10-17 Listed $99,700 WRVBOR
• 2025-09-10 Listed $96,000 Fizber.com

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $330 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.