1638 Marshall Ave

St. Paul, MN 55104

$514,900C+

6 bd · 3.9 ba · 2,576 sqft · Built 1959 · MultiFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,686/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,700
• Tax + insurance: −$959
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,404
• Net cashflow: $1,623/mo
• Annual: $19,470/yr
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.51%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $144,172

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.3-bath units multifamily listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $541/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $515k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($507k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $507k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $515k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $144k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $6,686/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.