1638 Marshall Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$514,900

6 bd · 3.9 ba · 2,576 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1959 5,532 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

SUPER INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. 3-1BR UNITS & 1 EFFICIENCY. OPEN FLOORPLANS, UPPER UNITS W/HARDWOOD FLOORS, NEW ROOF 10/08, NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE & OUT, NEW GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS, PERFECT OWNER OCCUPIED HOME! CLOSE TO ALL MAJOR ST PAUL SCHOOLS - EASY TO RENT!

Key facts

• 5,532 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1959

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property offers residential income as a triplex with 3 total units; Gross income reported at $53,940; Net operating income reported at $44,340; Owner pays exterior maintenance, repairs, sewer, taxes, and water; Tenant pays cable TV, electricity, and fuel; Estimated annual expenses listed for fuel, water/sewer, trash, electric, insurance, and maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking spaces for units (2 for one unit, 1 for each of the other two units)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric service via Xcel Energy
• Home design: Residential income property (triplex); Two levels; Entry level includes main living areas; Asphalt roof (over 8 years old)
• Construction: Block foundation; Built with stucco exterior; Asphalt roof (age over 8 years)
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Public transit within six blocks; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 6 total bedrooms (across units)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Multiple full bathrooms (total across units)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning (in at least one unit)
• Interior features: Finished full basement with block construction; Open floor plan; Granite countertops; Hardwood floors; Kitchen window
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.3-bath units multifamily listed at $515k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $540/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $515k).
• Recommended offer: $507k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,682/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $144k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($507k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $515k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $507,176 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.48%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $16,521
• Equity at exit: $76,773

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $134,268
• Equity at exit: $44,519

Cash invested: $144,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 19.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,700
• Tax from tax record: −$745 /mo · $8,936/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,403
• Net cashflow: $1,619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,632

Max offer price $514,900

Occupancy floor 71%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1.3	$6,681
Total (3 units)			$6,682

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,725
• Closing costs: $15,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Contingent - Inspection 1416-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $514,900 Active 1416-char remark
3. 2025-07-14
   historical
4. 2025-05-28
   price $519,900
5. 2025-04-28
   price $539,900
6. 2025-04-11
   listed $560,000 Active
7. 2023-10-09
   historical $770
8. 2023-09-23
   listed $770
9. 2015-04-22
   soldstatus $255,000
10. 2010-03-22
    soldstatus $268,500
11. 2010-03-16
    soldstatus $268,500

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    SUPER INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. 3-1BR UNITS & 1 EFFICIENCY. OPEN FLOORPLANS, UPPER UNITS W/HARDWOOD FLOORS, NEW ROOF 10/08, NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE & OUT, NEW GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS, PERFECT OWNER OCCUPIED HOME! CLOSE TO ALL MAJOR ST PAUL SCHOOLS - EASY TO RENT!

12. 2010-03-04
    historical

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    SUPER INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. 3-1BR UNITS & 1 EFFICIENCY. OPEN FLOORPLANS, UPPER UNITS W/HARDWOOD FLOORS, NEW ROOF 10/08, NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE & OUT, NEW GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS, PERFECT OWNER OCCUPIED HOME! CLOSE TO ALL MAJOR ST PAUL SCHOOLS - EASY TO RENT!

13. 2009-10-23
    listed $298,750

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    SUPER INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. 3-1BR UNITS & 1 EFFICIENCY. OPEN FLOORPLANS, UPPER UNITS W/HARDWOOD FLOORS, NEW ROOF 10/08, NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE & OUT, NEW GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS, PERFECT OWNER OCCUPIED HOME! CLOSE TO ALL MAJOR ST PAUL SCHOOLS - EASY TO RENT!

14. 2009-10-02
    historical
15. 2008-11-14
    listed $298,750
16. 2008-11-14
    historical
17. 2008-10-02
    listed $279,900
18. 2008-09-20
    historical
19. 2007-09-21
    listed $289,900
20. 2004-11-17
    soldstatus $330,000
21. 2004-02-27
    historical
22. 2004-02-06
    listed $339,900
23. 2003-12-17
    historical
24. 2003-11-20
    listed $349,000
25. 2003-11-20
    historical
26. 2003-10-31
    soldstatus $290,000
27. 2003-10-10
    listed $349,900
28. 1996-06-05
    soldstatus $107,500
29. 1996-05-30
    soldstatus $107,500
30. 1996-05-13
    historical
31. 1996-04-18
    listed $109,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,936 · $745/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,936 · $745/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,842
• − Property taxes: −$8,936
• − Insurance: −$2,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,415
• − Management: −$6,415
• − Depreciation: −$14,979
• Taxable income: $12,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,885
• After-tax cash flow: $16,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+370.2% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $514,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $519,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $539,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-11 Listed $560,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-09 Rental Removed $770 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-23 Listed for Rent $770 APPFOLIO
• 2015-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $268,500 Public Records
• 2010-03-16 Sold (MLS) $268,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-23 Listed $298,750 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-14 Listed $298,750 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-02 Listed $279,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-21 Listed $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-06 Listed $339,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-20 Listed $349,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-10 Listed $349,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $107,500 Public Records
• 1996-05-30 Sold (MLS) $107,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-05-13 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-18 Listed $109,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,936 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.