18 74TH St Unit D5

Guttenberg, NJ 07047

$249,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 578 sqft · Built 1925 · Condo · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,376/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$369
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,304/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (4.6% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#51 in NJ, #1,253 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• North Bergen School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #393 of 472 in NJ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $249k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Guttenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?