16611 Oak Ave

Woodville, CA 93274

$129,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,135 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,705/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $562/mo
• Annual: $6,743/yr
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.67%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,191 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute D-.
• Woodville Union Elementary (rural): math 9% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #500 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.