16611 Oak Ave · Woodville, CA 93274

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,135 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1920 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is being sold with a tenant in place, offering immediate rental income potential. Buyer to assume the existing tenancy at the close of escrow. Being sold as is!

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Water connected; Sewer connected; Water source: Other; Sewer type: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Built as residential single-family property
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Irregular-shaped lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Has cooling; Heating type: Other; Cooling type: Other
• Interior features: Has heating; Has cooling; Cooling type: Other; Heating type: Other

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $129,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$290,560) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,191 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute D-.
• Woodville Union Elementary (rural): math 9% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #500 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.67%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,560
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16870 Cloverdale Rd	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+0%)	5mo	$275,000	$241	81
16436 Ave 166	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-4%)	11mo	$280,000	$256	72
16710 Oak Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,093 (-4%)	10mo	$200,000	$183	70
16364 Avenue 168	0.32mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,248 (+10%)	14mo	$325,000	$260	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $14,279
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $56,053
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93274

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $655/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $993

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 212-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $129,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $655 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$326/yr (+$27/mo · 49.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$655
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $4,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,177
• After-tax cash flow: $5,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0643170
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $29,332
• Composite: 9.7/100
• National rank: #9832
• State rank: #500 of 517 in CA

Livability — Woodville

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1191
• US rank: #26031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living B- Crime B Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodville, CA
• County: Tulare County · 323,826 people
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,026
• Household income: $72,650
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2393.0

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% White 29% Two or more races 24% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -402.03%
• Current HPI: 316.0806
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $129,000 TCMLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $655 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.