3430 S Chestnut Ave

Newaygo, MI 49337

$39,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 805 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $974/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $528/mo
• Annual: $6,333/yr
• Cap rate: 22.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.69%
• DSCR: 3.52
• 1% rule: 2.44%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#470 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities D-.
• Morley Stanwood Community Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #390 of 540 in MI (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Newaygo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newaygo County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 22.2% vs local median 3.3% in Newaygo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.